March 25, 2025, LONDON: Tuesday’s match could be pivotal for Saudi Arabia’s automatic qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. A result in Japan would be positive, but a win would significantly boost morale and make a statement to other teams in their AFC qualifying group. A loss would not be a disgrace but could hinder their hopes of securing a top-two finish.
The 1-0 victory over China last Thursday moved Saudi Arabia to third in Group C with nine points, one behind Australia. These two teams are likely to compete for the second automatic qualification spot, as Japan has already secured its place. Missing out would not eliminate their World Cup chances, but Saudi Arabia, aiming for a seventh appearance, wants to avoid finishing third or fourth.
Japan, with 19 points from seven games, has already qualified. Coach Hajime Moriyasu has stated his intention to win the remaining matches, but the pressure will be off, and there might be some experimentation with squad members. Some Japanese players, such as Kaoru Mitoma, Ayase Ueda, and Hidemasa Morita, are dealing with fitness concerns, which could benefit Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis will also be watching China’s match against Australia in hopes of helping to erase Australia’s superior goal difference. Whatever happens in Japan, fans back in Riyadh and Jeddah will be cheering for China to either get a point or win, as the goal difference could become crucial later.
How Saudi Arabia plays against Japan is key. Coach Hervé Renard’s best achievement with the team was the 2-1 win over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup, showcasing courage and skill. The Saudis aim to start slowly in Saitama to calm the game, but they will need to be aggressive at some point. Defending for the entire match is unlikely to work against Japan, who scored 32 goals in eight games in 2024, including a 2-0 win in Jeddah.
Saudi Arabia has been focusing on wide attacks to break through Japan’s defense, but injuries to key players like Saud Abdulhamid, Mohamed Kanno, and Hassan Kadesh have hampered their preparations. Despite the challenges, the win against China was promising, with Salem Al-Dawsari playing a key role. Midfielders Nasser Al-Dawsari and Musab Al-Juwayr are fit and ready to contribute.
Japan’s attacking play will present both defensive and offensive opportunities for Saudi Arabia. The outcome of this match will determine whether it marks a significant step toward World Cup qualification or something else entirely.